Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Moving with the trend

Jon Haghayeghi | Twitter@LoneStarQuant

It has been a busy month - Greece struck a deal, U.S. companies have reported earnings, and China has banned short-selling to curb the recent 30% drop in equity prices. Many american investors are buying dips, recognizing that there has not been a 10% drawdown in the U.S. markets in the past four years and the trend can continue as rates remain low as the Fed holds 4.5 trillion in securities. With that in mind, let's take a look at a couple potential long trades.

Ace Limited has rallied ten years in a row during the three months following August. Although the stock has a beta of 1.01 (nearly perfectly correlated to the broad market), has rallied the past several weeks despite softness in the equity markets. Based on historical data, we expect the stock to rally about 8.5% over the next three months.

Nike (NKE) is a large-cap that has historically traded well in August and September.  The historical average gain is 8.5% for the 56 days starting August 5th. 

Both of the patterns listed above are great candidates for premium selling and have liquid option chains. I encourage you to get creative - there are ways to limit your downside risk without setting stop-losses. Stay smart and trade safe!

Monday, February 9, 2015

Large cap entries for February

Jon Haghayeghi | Twitter@LoneStarQuant

Everyone needs extra money for Valentines Day, which is why we are here to show you trade setups for companies in the S&P500 that open in February. These stocks are highly liquid and optionable, making them great candidates for a swing position.


YUM! rallies year-after-year during the Spring. In fact, for the past 17 consecutive years YUM has rallied an average of 13% between February and May. The entry date for this trade is February 10th and exit date is May 11th.


Seasonalysis members have traded VFC several years in a row. This company has particularly strong performance through the months of February and March. On average, the 63-day rally between February 7th and April 10th yields an attractive 10.3%.


Have a shorter trade-horizon? Priceline has a great setup through the month of February until the 10th of March.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Trade Setups for January

By Jon Haghayeghi | Twitter@LoneStarQuant

Time to kick off 2015 on a strong note. Let's take a look at some of the best trade setups for the month of January!

Hungry for a good trade? Jack In The Box has rallied over eighteen of the past nineteen years starting in mid-January. Looking specifically at the past 14 years, JACK rallied an average of 13% over the 77 days following the 14th.

We looked at YUM last year before rallying 16% over the 91 days following the 1/31. This has occurred 15 years in a row, moving an average of 13.3%.

Long time seasonal traders have been watching VFC rally at the end of January for nearly 30 years! Have your eyes peeled for a bullish setup Feb-March.